Temperature predictions in Lake Ontario
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There has been an exhaustive study of the Lake Ontario circulation over several decades, but the study of the thermodynamics and thermal structures has been largely left unattended. In the present study a thermal hydrodynamic model, capable of conducting long term thermal hydrodynamic modeling on Lake Ontario was developed. Several sensitivity analysis runs were done in order to arrive at a reasonable model configuration. The hydrothermal model developed was applied to predict the temperature values at the intakes for Ginna and Nine Mile Point power plants. It was found that the model predicted intake temperatures were quite sensitive to the variation in vertical resolution; light extinction coefficient and cloud cover values. The model performed reasonably well in simulating the intake temperatures and the upwelling and downwelling events occurring at the two power plant intakes. It was found that the model had problems simulating the thermocline. The model developed in the present work is also capable of running in real time and making forecasts (up to 72 hours) of the lake temperatures. A user friendly web interface was also developed to aid in viewing the results of the model forecasts.