A Mathematical Framework for Analyzing Vulnerabilities in Large Scale Urban Evacuation Plans
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It is important to identify vulnerabilities in any large scale evacuation plan, as it may have various reparations right from the increase in evacuation time to the total failure of the evacuation plan. Also, it helps in taking corrective actions in time, to make the infrastructure resilient to any damage that may occur during an evacuation. This paper introduces a mathematical model that locates the vulnerable parts of any area by calculating the resulting cost implication. The model consists of two separate optimization models. The first model is responsible for finding the optimum evacuation plan, when given any data set, using a multi-commodity dynamic network flow model over the time-expanded network. The second model is responsible in finding a set of vulnerable routes in the evacuation plan. Continuous interdiction is used to find the most vulnerable route. The output will not only indicate the need for a resilient route, but also identify the time period during which the route is vulnerable. To conclude, the future scope of research in this topic are discussed.