Urban Disaster Recovery: A Framework and Simulation Model

Abstract

The study described in this report focuses on developing an educational tool for illustrating concepts of community recovery, and identifying data collection and research needs for more refined recovery models in the future. A conceptual framework of disaster recovery, guided by insights form empirical literature, is introduced. The resulting model focuses on simulating recovery processes rather than on estimating dollar losses. It emphasizes the dynamic or temporal process of recovery; simulates impacts at the individual agent level of analysis; relates recovery across business, household, and lifeline infrastructure sectors; relates recovery across individual, neighborhood, and community scales of analysis; highlights the key role of lifeline systems in recovery; and is designed to explore the complex consequences of mitigation, planning, and policy decisions. The model was applied to both a hypothetical community and to an area previously affected by an earthquake, Kobe, Japan, and it was able to replicate broad trends from the disaster. Additional efforts to validate the model are made through sensitivity analysis. In conclusion, the report identifies conceptual, methodological, and data issues that have emerged from this work.